Sunday, May 3, 2015

The Burning Sea and the Vanishing Coast



Oamjie John[1]
Introduction

“A few decades ago, we used to go fishing by observing the direction of the wind, the movement of the waves and the sight of the flock of birds. We were almost sure where we could get the type of fish we wanted. Today everything has changed; the untimely rain, unpredicted cyclones and vanishing coasts and houses. Some species of fish have disappeared for ever. Instead, some new species started migrating into our sea. In short, there is no certainty at all with our livelihood”, lamented Ravikumar, a fisherman from Kozhikode. His helplessness is shared also by almost all the fishing folk all across the Indian coast. About fifty years ago fisherfolk   normally planned their work on the sea by observing the changes in nature and its admonitions. These observations were found to be accurate in most of the occasions. This traditional and local knowledge has built a strong foundation for the sustainability of their livelihoods.

However the last five decades have witnessed unprecedented changes in the sea and all along the coast. The major changes among these are man-made. Moreover, the complexity of the problem has been enhanced due to the unpredicted and ever growing impacts of climate change as well. The uncontrolled and unscientific measures applied to several developmental projects all along the coast have in fact made a deep impact on the ecosystem of the sea and the coastal environment. Even globally, the coast and the adjoining areas have been converted as major hot spots for industrial and tourism development. The case of India and Kerala is no exception.

Global warming and climate change
Studies about the impact of global warming and climate change on the coast and on life and livelihoods of coastal communities are only in the preliminary stage. In Kerala, hardly any study has been done in this direction but it can be directly understood that the consequences of global warming and climate change are increasing on a day-to-day basis. It is a daily experience for the coastal inhabitants that sea temperature is on the increase, fish species disappear, sea-level rises, coasts vanish due to erosion, flood is a common phenomenon and houses are being washed away. If this condition persists, scientists predict that by 2026 global warming will deal a death blow for most of world’s coastal countries and communities.

The Kerala coast is, in effect, undergoing unprecedented changes and has been facing acute ecological crisis over the past five decades. Both natural and man-made causes are behind this crisis. Temperature rise due to the emission of greenhouse gases has in fact started affecting the Arabian Sea and its eco system on a large scale. The emerging modern lifestyle and the way in which we deal with nature also have indeed aggravated the present crisis. Uncontrolled thirst for consumerism has become the culture and lifestyle of the majority of Malayalees. The messy increase in transportation, the criminal destruction of forests, hills, rivers and other water sources in the name of infrastructural development, the pollution of air and water due to unscientific industrialization, the carbon emission created by domestic activities, etc. are causing rise in the temperature and chaotic changes in the climate.

“Sea water has a great capacity to absorb carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But this ability is considerably reduced as a result of increase in acidity in sea water. Studies show that acidity of sea water at the surface level has increased by 30 percent. This is due to the increased carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere. Marine species with shells and coral reef are perishing alarmingly. Due to rise in sea temperature, cyclones such as El Nino lose its direction and create havoc on unpredicted areas on the coast. These destructive cyclones are nightmares for sea travelers.”[2]

Uncontrolled and unscientific mode of fishing affects adversely even the seabed. Nuclear tests in deep sea, developmental activities along the coast, sand mining, tourism projects, etc. cause extensive destruction to coastal environment and the ecosystem of the sea. Human interventions of this sort both in the sea and along the coast lead to climatic changes and its resultant environmental problems. For example, the indiscriminate sand mining and destruction of mangroves on the Kolavipalam beach have resulted in the disappearance of the Olive Ridley tortoise which used to seasonally visit the beach for procreation since centuries.[3]

A survey conducted by the State of the Environment Report through Kerala State Council for Science, Technology and Environment shows that sea and the coastal environment are being systematically exploited by tourism industry, waste disposal, excessive land use, coastal engineering works and sand mining. The coastal areas of Kochi Lake, Alappuzha, Kayamkulam, Paravur, Veli and Kollam are considered places of importance for tourism. Waste disposal from tourism houseboats adds to pollution in these areas. Residues of plastic wastes also cause environmental destruction of the lakes and backwaters.

Kerala- the land of diversity
Kerala, a small stretch of land along the south-western coast of India, is situated between 8o18-12o48’ northern latitude and 74o52'-77o24’ eastern latitude along the northern side of the equator. Kerala has a total land area of 38,863 sq.km constituting 1.03 percent of the total land area of India. It has a coastal stretch of 590 km. Although the land is in close proximity to the equator, the climate is considerably influenced by the Western Ghats situated along the eastern border. The normal temperature of Kerala is 28-32 degree Celsius and the south-western and north-eastern monsoons are the major rainy seasons. Geographical diversity of Kerala also accounts for the diversity in climatic conditions of the area.

Human (social) development index disproportionate to economic development makes Kerala a unique development model compared to that of other parts of the world. According to UNDP ranking, Kerala stands first in human development index among Indian states. Advances in education and health sectors, low infant and maternal mortality rates, population control, and increased longevity are the major factors behind this unique positioning. Though Kerala stands fifth in per capita income, it has the first place in per capita consumption. As a consumer state, its fast changing lifestyles, extensive developmental activities and high energy consumption cause excessive emission of greenhouse gases. For example, per capita emission of carbon dioxide in Thiruvananthapuram city is 0.205 tones and that of Kochi is 0.40 tones[4]

Rising temperature; falling rainfall                                        
Studies show that the Arabian Sea on the western border of Kerala is highly affected by global warming. During the period 1904 - 1994, an increase of temperature by about 0.5 degree Celsius was observed on the surface of the Arabian Sea. In the period 1960 to 1995, only a very low increase in temperature was recorded in the Arabian Sea which is situated between 0.25o northern latitude and 45-80o eastern latitude. (ICOADS, NOAA, KAPLAN).[5] However it was observed that after 1995 the surface temperature of the sea started increasing. Post 1995 recorded unprecedented changes in temperature levels. Even when the temperature from the sun was low, the surface temperature of the sea remained high. Carbon dioxide level also increased excessively during this time while the same was negligible before that.  During the decade from 1995 to 2005, there was a 20 percent increase in carbon dioxide level which the highest recorded in the last 200 years. From this observation it can be inferred that the increase in surface level temperature of the Arabian sea is due to the influence of carbon related global warming and climatic change.[6]

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology based at Pune conducted a study on the increase in temperature from 1901 to 2007 at Calicut in north Kerala and Thiruvananthapuram in south Kerala. According to the report, the average annual temperature in north Kerala has increased by 1.02 degree Celsius and that of south Kerala by 1 degree Celsius in 100 years. The increase in temperature during the last three and a half decades is 0.4 degree Celsius.

As per the temperature statistics/data collected from 7 centers in Kerala during the last 50 years by the National Data Centre of Indian Meteorological Department (I.M.D) at Pune, there is an increase in temperature by 0.64 degree Celsius. Reports show an increase in global temperature by 0.7 degree Celsius since 1950 thus validating the relation between increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to excessive use of fuels like petroleum and coal and acceleration in global warming. I.M.D. statistics also shows further increase in the surface level temperature of Kerala.

It is observed that a substantial decline in rainfall happened during the period 1901 to 2007 according to available statistical data on monsoon rain in Kerala. Availability of underground water is also decreasing and the State Ground Water Department has observed that in certain areas of Kerala like Palakkad, the amount of underground water has alarmingly decreased. As per reports, changes in rainfall availability along the western coast of Kerala is from 965+185.33 mm to 1794+247 mm; an increase by 6% to 8%. Compared to the 1970 average, an 8% increase can be expected in rainfall availability in the months of June, July and August by 2030. At the same time a decrease of 19% in rainfall during the months of November, December and January is also expected. The report also predicts a decrease in rainfall during March, April and May as compared to that of 1970.

Rise in sea level
Impacts of climatic change will be excruciating in Kerala, a State having a lengthy coast line. As a result of the rise of sea level, salt water enters into low level terrains along the coast and thus the sources of agriculture, underground water and drinking water become contaminated and useless. Excessive amount of salt water is seen in Kadalundikkadavu and Chaliyam in the southern part of Kozhikode coastal area and in Beypore, Korapuzha and Morattpuzha areas. A report prepared by the Ministry of Environment and Forest of the Central government for the Framework Convention on Climate Change of the UN shows that Kerala is facing severe threats due to sea level rise. “It is estimated that there can be a rise in sea level from 8.8 cm to 87.8 cm during the period from 2000 to 2100. This will result in contamination of coastal underground water with salt water, deterioration of marshland and intermittent flooding making valuable coastal land useless.” the report warns.[7]

“There is recorded evidence showing that the changes in sea level have been examined since the 19th century. Today, with the advancement of technology, any area can be assessed accurately by satellite. During the 20th century the average sea level rise was 1.7 mm per annum. In the decade 1993-2003 it became 3.1mm. After 2003 there was a slight decrease to 2.5 mm. Excessive water flow caused by the melting of glaciers is the major reason behind the current rise in sea level. If this melting continues, by 2200 the glaciers will completely disappear and it is beyond doubt that the consequent sea level rise will be a great threat to coastal areas and especially low laying areas along the coast. Gradually the sea will engulf the shore and the coast will vanish into the sea. Rare species of plants along the coast will disappear forever. It will be catastrophic if the sea decides to take back the stretch of land once originated through the retraction of the sea.”[8] 

Observation of the Indian coast over the last two decades reveals that an average 1.3 mm rise in sea level has been happening every year. As per available data of the last 54 years, average sea level rise along the coast of Cochin is 1.75 mm per annum. An area of 169 sq. km adjacent to the Cochin coast is affected by the dangers of flash floods due to sea level rise. A study conducted by Thrivikramaji in 2008 corroborated that trickling of salt water into underground water sources and filling of marshland with salt water are among the major and severe impacts of global climatic change on the Kerala coast.[9]

In a publication of the Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Mr. K.S. Purushan of Panangad Fisheries College opines, “It is assumed that the sea level rises 8-9 mm per year due to climatic change. If this continues, there will be a rise in sea level by 30-40 cm by the end of the next 50 years. This will result in severe environmental and human disaster along the Indian coast and especially in Kerala.”[10]  Traditional paddy fields and 90,000 hectare shrimp/fish hatcheries will be completely ruined, endangering   job and food security of the people living along the Kerala coast. The foundations of rural economy will be adversely affected, causing its complete destruction.

1.3% of total coastal area of Kerala is affected by soil erosion. Protective structures like sea walls have been constructed in almost a 310 km area. Following are statistics relating to the Kerala coast:
High  soil erosion-affected area - 2.3km (0.40%), moderate soil erosion - 9.2km (1.57%), less soil erosion - 49.2km (8.37%), artificial/man-made beach 309.7km (52.09%) and permanent/ unaffected coast 46.3km (7.87%).[11]

Demise of bio-diversity of the sea and coast          
The Arabian Sea and the coast of Kerala are rich in precious bio-diversity. It is really startling that the mangrove forests in Kerala, once extending over an area of 700 sq km, has been reduced to a tiny stretch of 17 sq. km on account of ignorance and greed of Man. Traditionally, the creepers that grow on the coast, sand-dunes covered with green, tiny coastal forests and sacred groves have all acted as efficient organic defenses that indeed protected the valuable bio-diversity of the coast.  The planktons in the sea and the innumerable species of fish are to be seen as the dynamic presence of this ever vibrant bio-diversity.

District-wise distribution of mangroves in Kerala is as follows (in hectare); Thiruvananthapuram-(23), Kollam (58), Alappuzha (90), Ernakulum (260), Thrissur (21), Malappuram (12), Kozhikode (293), Kannur (755), Kasaragod (79) and the total area-(1671 hectare)[12]
Geographically, the northern coastal belt of Kerala was richer in mangroves and was considered as a living network of sustainable eco-links between sea, coast and inland areas. It was protected and revered as the organic body of a landscape because of its ability for sustainable productivity, coastal protection, for procreation of fishery species, housing a variety of animals and birds. Hence, any damage to these mangrove forests can lead to severe environmental impacts and climatic problems having far-reaching consequences. Almost 88% of mangroves in Kerala are owned by private individuals and it is being systematically destroyed in the name of house construction, uncontrolled collection of fire wood, fish farming and other agricultural as well as developmental activities. Hence, controlling the destruction of mangroves is quite impossible. Moreover, private owners are motivated by financial profits and other vested interests over and above crucial concerns like environmental equilibrium.

Along with human encroachments, the rise of sea level also threatens the existence of mangroves.  Mangroves play an important role in maintaining carbon dioxide equilibrium in the atmosphere. It is certain that the destruction of mangroves along the Kerala coast will damage its bio-diversity and result in climatic changes having far-reaching consequences. However, rays of hope can be seen as some NGOs and individuals are actively working for the protection of mangroves in certain parts of the State. Mr. Pokkudan from north Kerala is one such example.

Declining employment opportunities
The coast of Kerala having a length of 590 km is thickly populated. Undoubtedly, climate change will adversely affect employment opportunities of people of this coastal area. Although the Kerala coast accounts for only 10% of the total Indian coastal area, 25% of the total population of Indian fishing community inhabit here. Fishery production is also proportionate to the density of population.
Climate change will affect employment opportunities in the fisheries sector in a number of ways.  Sea level rise and unexpected sea encroachment aggravate erosion of the coast through which the safe places to stock fishing equipment are being eroded almost completely. Most of the fish landing centers of earlier days have disappeared over the past few decades. The villages of Mukadar and Nainamvalappu in Kozhikode are victims of ferocious sea encroachments and resulting in the loss of job opportunities. Veli, a village in Thiruvanathapuram, is another example of this situation.  In a violent sea encroachment that happened here a few years back, about 60 houses that stood for more than 30 years were completely destroyed in three days.

Discrepancy in the availability and types of fish species also have contributed to the decrease in employment opportunities in this sector. According to scientific observations and experience of fisherfolk, fish like Sardine and Mackerel of the Pelagic species which are in plenty on the Kerala coast, have started moving  either to other areas or to the bottom of the sea due to  variation in the temperature of the sea. It is observed that over the last couple of year, Oil Sardine has moved from the western coast to the eastern and north-western coasts. This uncertainty in the availability of fish causes problems both in employment and market sectors. The entry of new species and exit of traditional ones is quite a new phenomenon and therefore fisherfolk are learning how to cope with this situation. Scientists warn that as unpredicted climate variations occur, temperature of the sea will rise and will rapidly increase the uncertainty in the availability of fish.[13]

Production and distribution of pelagic fishes like Sardine and Mackerel which are of high commercial importance, have been very badly affected by climatic changes. Historically, Sardine and other similar fish species were found in the Malabar sea region located at the south-western part of India in 80-160o latitudinal area. But ever since 1989, there had been a definite change observed in the distribution of these fish. Oil Sardine became a major species of the south-eastern sea and Mackerel moved to the north-western part. As in the case of other tropical pelagic species, irregular increase and decrease in production can be noticed as well. Experiences of fisherfolk on the Malabar Coast corroborate this.

Basheer, a fisherman from Kozhikode beach complains, “There is no certainty as to the availability of fish as before.  Frequent changes are noticed in the quantity of fish catch. Hence uncertainty prevails in fish sale also.”

Many studies show that pelagic fish have only a very short life span. Climatic changes cause irregular temperature variation in pelagic coastal sea which is the living place of Sardine, Mackerel, etc., resulting in mass migration or destruction of such fish. It is observed that such unprecedented, irregular variations in sea temperature as experienced today also affects El Nino and La Nina winds. Scientists have found that the average rainfall during the 2012 monsoon was very less since El Nino wind was not properly formed. These phenomena also cause variations in the quantity of fish resources in the coastal sea.[14]

Disease-hit Kerala
Several studies highlight that climate change leads to severe health problems. Untimely rainfall, extreme temperature and cyclonic winds set a favorable atmosphere for the spread of epidemics. Increase in mosquito breeding, generations of new disease-causing viruses/bacteria and emergence of new types of diseases and epidemics have become a common experience of day-to-day life. Kerala, especially its coastal area, is currently facing the threat of this disaster.

Globally 2.5-3 billion people (40% of the total world population) live in constant threat of infection. Every year 5 crore cases of infection and 24,000 deaths are reported from about 100 epidemic-hit countries all over the world. 90% of victims are children and 52% of the total cases are reported from south Asian countries annually. India is one among the 7 countries from where Dengue fever cases are continuously reported. Experts from the health sector have already predicted that India will be placed as the capital of the epidemic Dengue fever in the near future.

It was in the year 1997 that Dengue fever cases and consequent deaths were reported from Kerala for the first time. Viruses Den-1, Den-2 and Den-4 were detected among the inhabitants in many parts of Kerala. Experiments show that in the year 1979 itself, Dengue anti-bodies were found in human blood in Kozhikode, Kannur, Palakkad, Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram districts. There are recent reports that Den-2 and Den-3 viruses have been found both in mosquitoes and human blood. The statistics provided by the Kerala Public Health Department shows that in the year 2011 there were 1304 reported cases of Dengue fever, which increased to 1396 in 2012. In addition to Dengue fever, epidemics such as Japan fever, Chikungunya and Filariasis also have hit many parts of Kerala, especially the coastal areas, and claimed many lives. On the basis of observations and experiments, experts and health workers strongly assert that all these epidemics have to be understood as the after-effects of climate change.[15]

In the year 2008, WHO warned that Chikungunya has been widespread in Kerala since 2006 and observed that it was the after effect of unprecedented climate change.
“Climate change is one of the key factors of the Chikungunya outbreak in Kerala during 2006 and 2007. Global warming is a major cause of surge in Chikungunya, dengue and malaria. These vector borne diseases will intensify with climate change and more people and new areas will fall prey to it”, according to Poonam Khetrapal Singh, deputy regional director (Southeast Asia) of WHO.[16]

Intermix climatic conditions of heat and dampness caused by increased atmospheric temperature and untimely rainfall is favorable for the growth of a number of microbes; moreover, such germs actively exist for a long time under such conditions. Environmental pollution and waste water deposits result in excessive procreation of germ-carrier mosquitoes. All these enabling conditions have made the coastal areas of Kerala a fertile land for a number of epidemics.

How to combat this disaster?
Two things are essential for facing such a challenge: first one is devising steps for reducing the impact of such disasters and secondly, developing sufficient capacity to cope with this calamity. The coast of Kerala and the communities residing there are facing the consequences of climate change and global warming for no fault of theirs. With whatever preventive measures that have been taken so far or planned to be implemented, the unavoidable reality is that this disaster is at their door steps. If timely initiatives to prevent the catastrophe are not taken immediately, impacts of the disaster may be unbearable. It is a historic truth that where modern technology and unscientific plans failed, traditional knowledge systems and techniques succeeded. It is remarkable that such initiatives are being experimented in the coastal environment and communities of Kerala. Strengthening of such attempts and giving maximum propaganda and enhancing awareness among the public about these initiatives are most desirable in the present time. A few suggestions helpful in reducing the impacts of the disaster are given below:
1.      Plant mangroves extensively especially in areas adjacent to estuaries and other marshlands.  
2.      Plant creepers such as Adampuvalli on the beach
3.      Protect natural coastal forests and sand-dunes
4.      Develop a bio-shield all over the coast of Kerala.
5.      Strictly implement the CRZ notification; ban all illegal constructions in areas near the sea.
6.      Fisherfolk should be advised to construct their houses at safe places away from the coast.

Some suggestions also are put forth for developing disaster preparedness to creatively cope with situations caused by climate change:
1.      As a first step, identify the threat of irregular and uncertain fishery production.
2.      Make attempts to creatively intervene in market activities by forming social management institutions in the changed scenario.
3.      Take proper precautions and preventive measures with the help of modern technology while going for fishing.
4.      Get training in the production of value-added fish products. Co-ordinate marketing and sale through co-operative societies and women organizations such as Kudumbasree.
5.      Start resource/information centers and set up effective communication networks using community radio, T.V., etc. to give prior information regarding unexpected disasters.
6.      Start initiatives both in family and at Panchayath level to procure food, drinking water, etc. for disaster-affected times.
7.      Acquire technological knowledge in methods of processing/disposing of waste at the source itself; strongly oppose and prevent waste disposal in the sea.
8.      Reduce fuel consumption to the minimum level; use more of non-conventional energy like solar and bio-gas.

Governments need to be pressurized to show political will to effectively implement these suggestions in order to address the unavoidable disaster due to global warming and climate change. Attempts for disaster preparedness are to be started from school level itself. It is high time that proper actions need to be initiated by society as a whole to combat such unavoidable calamities keeping apart all blind political, caste or religious rivalries.





[1] Oamjie John is a researcher and development consultant based in Calicut. He can be reached at oamjie@gmail.com and +91-8089399915
[2] Dr. George Varghese, Kalavasthayum Rashtreeyavum (Climate and Politics), Mathrubhumi Books, Kozhikode, August, 2011

[3] Amrtha K, Bharath Jairaj, Rachel Pearlin, Reports on Post Tsunami Environment Initiative (PTEI) of the UNDP by Citizen consumer and civic Action Group (CAG), Chennai and Malabar Coastal Institute for Training, Research and Action (MCiTRA), Kozhikode, Kerala, March, 2008

[4] Kala Seetharam Sridhar, Carbon Emissions, Climate Change, and Impacts in India’s Cities, India Infrastructure Report 2010
[5] International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) (Woodruff et al.,2005) (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cdc/data.coads.1deg.html), (2) NOAA SST data (Reynolds et al., 2002) and (3) Kaplan SST data (Kaplan et al., 1998), both provided by the NOAA/OAR/ERSL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA from their website http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/in (Reynolds et al., 2002).

[6] Prasanna Kumar .S, Raj P. Roshin, Jayu Narvekar, P.K. Dinesh Kumar and E. Vivekanandan, Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, India, Regional Center of NIO, Kochi, India, Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Kochi, India, Marine Environmental Research: 68(5); 2009

[7] http://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/India Second National Communication to UNFCCC.pdf
[8] Dr. George Varghese, Kalavasthayum Rashtreeyavum (Climate and Politics), Mathrubhumi Books, Kozhikode, August, 2011

[9] Thrivikramji, K.P., Climate Change Catastrophe: Insulating Kerala, CED, KEC, Thrissur, April, 2008.

[10] Purushan K.S, Panangad Fisheries College, Report of Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Kochi, 2008

[11] Ramesh R. P, Purvaja R, Senthil Vel A, Report of National Centre for Sustainable Coastal Management (NCSCM)

[12] Courtesy –Kerala Forest Department
[13] Vivekanandan E, Jayasankar J, Winter School on Impact of Climate Change, Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Kochi, 2008

[14] Vivekanandan E, CMFRI Newsletter 112: Oct-Dec 2006; http://203.200.148.2/cdhome/Newsletter/Number_112_2006

[15] Prepared by IDSP, SSU under Kerala Public Health Department http://dhs.kerala.gov.in/docs/pdf/cdaug.pdf

[16] http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/health/chikungunya-in-kerala-due-to-climate-change-who_10035395.html

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