Oamjie
John[1]
Introduction
“A few decades ago, we
used to go fishing by observing the direction of the wind, the movement of the
waves and the sight of the flock of birds. We were almost sure where we could
get the type of fish we wanted. Today everything has changed; the untimely
rain, unpredicted cyclones and vanishing coasts and houses. Some species of
fish have disappeared for ever. Instead, some new species started migrating
into our sea. In short, there is no certainty at all with our livelihood”,
lamented Ravikumar, a fisherman from Kozhikode. His helplessness is shared also
by almost all the fishing folk all across the Indian coast. About fifty years
ago fisherfolk normally planned their work on the sea by observing
the changes in nature and its admonitions. These observations were found to be accurate
in most of the occasions. This traditional and local knowledge has built a
strong foundation for the sustainability of their livelihoods.
However the last five decades
have witnessed unprecedented changes in the sea and all along the coast. The
major changes among these are man-made. Moreover, the complexity of the problem
has been enhanced due to the unpredicted and ever growing impacts of climate
change as well. The uncontrolled and unscientific measures applied to several
developmental projects all along the coast have in fact made a deep impact on the
ecosystem of the sea and the coastal environment. Even globally, the coast and
the adjoining areas have been converted as major hot spots for industrial and
tourism development. The case of India and Kerala is no exception.
Global warming and climate
change
Studies about the
impact of global warming and climate change on the coast and on life and
livelihoods of coastal communities are only in the preliminary stage. In Kerala,
hardly any study has been done in this direction but it can be directly understood
that the consequences of global warming and climate change are increasing on a
day-to-day basis. It is a daily experience for the coastal inhabitants that sea
temperature is on the increase, fish species disappear, sea-level rises, coasts
vanish due to erosion, flood is a common phenomenon and houses are being washed
away. If this condition persists, scientists predict that by 2026 global
warming will deal a death blow for most of world’s coastal countries and
communities.
The Kerala coast is, in
effect, undergoing unprecedented changes and has been facing acute ecological
crisis over the past five decades. Both natural and man-made causes are behind
this crisis. Temperature rise due to the emission of greenhouse gases has in
fact started affecting the Arabian Sea and its eco system on a large scale. The
emerging modern lifestyle and the way in which we deal with nature also have
indeed aggravated the present crisis. Uncontrolled thirst for consumerism has
become the culture and lifestyle of the majority of Malayalees. The messy
increase in transportation, the criminal destruction of forests, hills, rivers
and other water sources in the name of infrastructural development, the
pollution of air and water due to unscientific industrialization, the carbon
emission created by domestic activities, etc. are causing rise in the
temperature and chaotic changes in the climate.
“Sea water has a great
capacity to absorb carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But this ability is
considerably reduced as a result of increase in acidity in sea water. Studies
show that acidity of sea water at the surface level has increased by 30 percent.
This is due to the increased carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere. Marine species
with shells and coral reef are perishing alarmingly. Due to rise in sea
temperature, cyclones such as El Nino lose its direction and create havoc on
unpredicted areas on the coast. These destructive cyclones are nightmares for
sea travelers.”[2]
Uncontrolled and
unscientific mode of fishing affects adversely even the seabed. Nuclear tests
in deep sea, developmental activities along the coast, sand mining, tourism
projects, etc. cause extensive destruction to coastal environment and the ecosystem
of the sea. Human interventions of this sort both in the sea and along the
coast lead to climatic changes and its resultant environmental problems. For
example, the indiscriminate sand mining and destruction of mangroves on the
Kolavipalam beach have resulted in the disappearance of the Olive Ridley
tortoise which used to seasonally visit the beach for procreation since
centuries.[3]
A survey conducted by
the State of the Environment Report through Kerala State Council for Science,
Technology and Environment shows that sea and the coastal environment are being
systematically exploited by tourism industry, waste disposal, excessive land
use, coastal engineering works and sand mining. The coastal areas of Kochi
Lake, Alappuzha, Kayamkulam, Paravur, Veli and Kollam are considered places of importance
for tourism. Waste disposal from tourism houseboats adds to pollution in these
areas. Residues of plastic wastes also cause environmental destruction of the
lakes and backwaters.
Kerala- the land of
diversity
Kerala, a small stretch
of land along the south-western coast of India, is situated between 8o18’-12o48’
northern latitude and 74o52'-77o24’ eastern latitude
along the northern side of the equator. Kerala has a total land area of 38,863
sq.km constituting 1.03 percent of the total land area of India. It has a
coastal stretch of 590 km. Although the land is in close proximity to the
equator, the climate is considerably influenced by the Western Ghats situated
along the eastern border. The normal temperature of Kerala is 28-32 degree
Celsius and the south-western and north-eastern monsoons are the major rainy
seasons. Geographical diversity of Kerala also accounts for the diversity in
climatic conditions of the area.
Human (social)
development index disproportionate to economic development makes Kerala a
unique development model compared to that of other parts of the world. According
to UNDP ranking, Kerala stands first in human development index among Indian
states. Advances in education and health sectors, low infant and maternal
mortality rates, population control, and increased longevity are the major factors
behind this unique positioning. Though Kerala stands fifth in per capita
income, it has the first place in per capita consumption. As a consumer state, its
fast changing lifestyles, extensive developmental activities and high energy
consumption cause excessive emission of greenhouse gases. For example, per capita
emission of carbon dioxide in Thiruvananthapuram city is 0.205 tones and that
of Kochi is 0.40 tones[4]
Rising
temperature; falling rainfall
Studies show that the
Arabian Sea on the western border of Kerala is highly affected by global
warming. During the period 1904 - 1994, an increase of temperature by about 0.5
degree Celsius was observed on the surface of the Arabian Sea. In the period
1960 to 1995, only a very low increase in temperature was recorded in the Arabian
Sea which is situated between 0.25o northern latitude and 45-80o
eastern latitude. (ICOADS, NOAA, KAPLAN).[5]
However it was observed that after 1995 the surface temperature of the sea
started increasing. Post 1995 recorded unprecedented changes in temperature
levels. Even when the temperature from the sun was low, the surface temperature
of the sea remained high. Carbon dioxide level also increased excessively during
this time while the same was negligible before that. During the decade from 1995 to 2005, there was
a 20 percent increase in carbon dioxide level which the highest recorded in the
last 200 years. From this observation it can be inferred that the increase in
surface level temperature of the Arabian sea is due to the influence of carbon
related global warming and climatic change.[6]
Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology based at Pune conducted a study on the increase in
temperature from 1901 to 2007 at Calicut in north Kerala and Thiruvananthapuram
in south Kerala. According to the report, the average annual temperature in
north Kerala has increased by 1.02 degree Celsius and that of south Kerala by 1
degree Celsius in 100 years. The increase in temperature during the last three
and a half decades is 0.4 degree Celsius.
As per the temperature
statistics/data collected from 7 centers in Kerala during the last 50 years by
the National Data Centre of Indian Meteorological Department (I.M.D) at
Pune, there is an increase in temperature by 0.64 degree Celsius. Reports show
an increase in global temperature by 0.7 degree Celsius since 1950 thus
validating the relation between increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
due to excessive use of fuels like petroleum and coal and acceleration in
global warming. I.M.D. statistics also shows further increase in the surface
level temperature of Kerala.
It is observed that a
substantial decline in rainfall happened during the period 1901 to 2007
according to available statistical data on monsoon rain in Kerala. Availability
of underground water is also decreasing and the State Ground Water Department
has observed that in certain areas of Kerala like Palakkad, the amount of
underground water has alarmingly decreased. As per reports, changes in rainfall
availability along the western coast of Kerala is from 965+185.33 mm to
1794+247 mm; an increase by 6% to 8%. Compared to the 1970 average, an 8%
increase can be expected in rainfall availability in the months of June, July
and August by 2030. At the same time a decrease of 19% in rainfall during the
months of November, December and January is also expected. The report also predicts
a decrease in rainfall during March, April and May as compared to that of 1970.
Rise in sea level
Impacts of climatic
change will be excruciating in Kerala, a State having a lengthy coast line. As
a result of the rise of sea level, salt water enters into low level terrains
along the coast and thus the sources of agriculture, underground water and
drinking water become contaminated and useless. Excessive amount of salt water
is seen in Kadalundikkadavu and Chaliyam in the southern part of Kozhikode coastal
area and in Beypore, Korapuzha and Morattpuzha areas. A report prepared by the Ministry
of Environment and Forest of the Central government for the Framework Convention
on Climate Change of the UN shows that Kerala is facing severe threats due to
sea level rise. “It is estimated that there can be a rise in sea level from 8.8
cm to 87.8 cm during the period from 2000 to 2100. This will result in
contamination of coastal underground water with salt water, deterioration of
marshland and intermittent flooding making valuable coastal land useless.” the
report warns.[7]
“There is recorded
evidence showing that the changes in sea level have been examined since the 19th
century. Today, with the advancement of technology, any area can be assessed
accurately by satellite. During the 20th century the average sea
level rise was 1.7 mm per annum. In the decade 1993-2003 it became 3.1mm. After
2003 there was a slight decrease to 2.5 mm. Excessive water flow caused by the
melting of glaciers is the major reason behind the current rise in sea level.
If this melting continues, by 2200 the glaciers will completely disappear and it
is beyond doubt that the consequent sea level rise will be a great threat to coastal
areas and especially low laying areas along the coast. Gradually the sea will
engulf the shore and the coast will vanish into the sea. Rare species of plants
along the coast will disappear forever. It will be catastrophic if the sea
decides to take back the stretch of land once originated through the retraction
of the sea.”[8]
Observation of the
Indian coast over the last two decades reveals that an average 1.3 mm rise in sea
level has been happening every year. As per available data of the last 54
years, average sea level rise along the coast of Cochin is 1.75 mm per annum.
An area of 169 sq. km adjacent to the Cochin coast is affected by the dangers
of flash floods due to sea level rise. A study conducted by Thrivikramaji in
2008 corroborated that trickling of salt water into underground water sources
and filling of marshland with salt water are among the major and severe impacts
of global climatic change on the Kerala coast.[9]
In a publication of the
Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Mr. K.S. Purushan of Panangad Fisheries
College opines, “It is assumed that the sea level rises 8-9 mm per year due to
climatic change. If this continues, there will be a rise in sea level by 30-40
cm by the end of the next 50 years. This will result in severe environmental
and human disaster along the Indian coast and especially in Kerala.”[10] Traditional paddy fields and 90,000 hectare
shrimp/fish hatcheries will be completely ruined, endangering job and food security of the people living
along the Kerala coast. The foundations of rural economy will be adversely affected,
causing its complete destruction.
1.3% of total coastal
area of Kerala is affected by soil erosion. Protective structures like sea
walls have been constructed in almost a 310 km area. Following are statistics
relating to the Kerala coast:
High soil erosion-affected area - 2.3km (0.40%),
moderate soil erosion - 9.2km (1.57%), less soil erosion - 49.2km (8.37%),
artificial/man-made beach 309.7km (52.09%) and permanent/ unaffected coast 46.3km
(7.87%).[11]
Demise of bio-diversity of the sea and
coast
The Arabian Sea and the
coast of Kerala are rich in precious bio-diversity. It is really startling that
the mangrove forests in Kerala, once extending over an area of 700 sq km, has
been reduced to a tiny stretch of 17 sq. km on account of ignorance and greed
of Man. Traditionally, the creepers that grow on the coast, sand-dunes covered
with green, tiny coastal forests and sacred groves have all acted as efficient
organic defenses that indeed protected the valuable bio-diversity of the coast.
The planktons in the sea and the
innumerable species of fish are to be seen as the dynamic presence of this ever
vibrant bio-diversity.
District-wise
distribution of mangroves in Kerala is as follows (in hectare); Thiruvananthapuram-(23),
Kollam (58), Alappuzha (90), Ernakulum (260), Thrissur (21), Malappuram (12),
Kozhikode (293), Kannur (755), Kasaragod (79) and the total area-(1671 hectare)[12]
Geographically, the
northern coastal belt of Kerala was richer in mangroves and was considered as a
living network of sustainable eco-links between sea, coast and inland areas. It
was protected and revered as the organic body of a landscape because of its
ability for sustainable productivity, coastal protection, for procreation of
fishery species, housing a variety of animals and birds. Hence, any damage to
these mangrove forests can lead to severe environmental impacts and climatic
problems having far-reaching consequences. Almost 88% of mangroves in Kerala are
owned by private individuals and it is being systematically destroyed in the
name of house construction, uncontrolled collection of fire wood, fish farming
and other agricultural as well as developmental activities. Hence, controlling
the destruction of mangroves is quite impossible. Moreover, private owners are
motivated by financial profits and other vested interests over and above crucial
concerns like environmental equilibrium.
Along with human encroachments,
the rise of sea level also threatens the existence of mangroves. Mangroves play an important role in
maintaining carbon dioxide equilibrium in the atmosphere. It is certain that
the destruction of mangroves along the Kerala coast will damage its bio-diversity
and result in climatic changes having far-reaching consequences. However, rays
of hope can be seen as some NGOs and individuals are actively working for the
protection of mangroves in certain parts of the State. Mr. Pokkudan from north
Kerala is one such example.
Declining employment opportunities
The coast of Kerala having
a length of 590 km is thickly populated. Undoubtedly, climate change will
adversely affect employment opportunities of people of this coastal area. Although
the Kerala coast accounts for only 10% of the total Indian coastal area, 25% of
the total population of Indian fishing community inhabit here. Fishery
production is also proportionate to the density of population.
Climate change will affect
employment opportunities in the fisheries sector in a number of ways. Sea level rise and unexpected sea encroachment
aggravate erosion of the coast through which the safe places to stock fishing
equipment are being eroded almost completely. Most of the fish landing centers
of earlier days have disappeared over the past few decades. The villages of Mukadar
and Nainamvalappu in Kozhikode are victims of ferocious sea encroachments and resulting
in the loss of job opportunities. Veli, a village in Thiruvanathapuram, is
another example of this situation. In a violent
sea encroachment that happened here a few years back, about 60 houses that
stood for more than 30 years were completely destroyed in three days.
Discrepancy in the availability
and types of fish species also have contributed to the decrease in employment
opportunities in this sector. According to scientific observations and
experience of fisherfolk, fish like Sardine and Mackerel of the Pelagic species
which are in plenty on the Kerala coast, have started moving either to other areas or to the bottom of the
sea due to variation in the temperature
of the sea. It is observed that over the last couple of year, Oil Sardine has
moved from the western coast to the eastern and north-western coasts. This
uncertainty in the availability of fish causes problems both in employment and
market sectors. The entry of new species and exit of traditional ones is quite
a new phenomenon and therefore fisherfolk are learning how to cope with this
situation. Scientists warn that as unpredicted climate variations occur,
temperature of the sea will rise and will rapidly increase the uncertainty in
the availability of fish.[13]
Production and
distribution of pelagic fishes like Sardine and Mackerel which are of high
commercial importance, have been very badly affected by climatic changes.
Historically, Sardine and other similar fish species were found in the Malabar sea
region located at the south-western part of India in 80-160o latitudinal
area. But ever since 1989, there had been a definite change observed in the distribution
of these fish. Oil Sardine became a major species of the south-eastern sea and Mackerel
moved to the north-western part. As in the case of other tropical pelagic
species, irregular increase and decrease in production can be noticed as well. Experiences
of fisherfolk on the Malabar Coast corroborate this.
Basheer, a fisherman from
Kozhikode beach complains, “There is no certainty as to the availability of
fish as before. Frequent changes are noticed
in the quantity of fish catch. Hence uncertainty prevails in fish sale also.”
Many studies show that pelagic
fish have only a very short life span. Climatic changes cause irregular
temperature variation in pelagic coastal sea which is the living place of
Sardine, Mackerel, etc., resulting in mass migration or destruction of such
fish. It is observed that such unprecedented, irregular variations in sea
temperature as experienced today also affects El Nino and La Nina
winds. Scientists have found that the average rainfall during the 2012 monsoon
was very less since El Nino wind was not properly formed. These
phenomena also cause variations in the quantity of fish resources in the
coastal sea.[14]
Disease-hit Kerala
Several studies highlight
that climate change leads to severe health problems. Untimely rainfall, extreme
temperature and cyclonic winds set a favorable atmosphere for the spread of epidemics.
Increase in mosquito breeding, generations of new disease-causing
viruses/bacteria and emergence of new types of diseases and epidemics have
become a common experience of day-to-day life. Kerala, especially its coastal
area, is currently facing the threat of this disaster.
Globally 2.5-3 billion
people (40% of the total world population) live in constant threat of
infection. Every year 5 crore cases of infection and 24,000 deaths are reported
from about 100 epidemic-hit countries all over the world. 90% of victims are
children and 52% of the total cases are reported from south Asian countries
annually. India is one among the 7 countries from where Dengue fever cases are
continuously reported. Experts from the health sector have already predicted
that India will be placed as the capital of the epidemic Dengue fever in the
near future.
It was in the year 1997
that Dengue fever cases and consequent deaths were reported from Kerala for the
first time. Viruses Den-1, Den-2 and Den-4 were detected among the inhabitants in
many parts of Kerala. Experiments show that in the year 1979 itself, Dengue
anti-bodies were found in human blood in Kozhikode, Kannur, Palakkad, Thrissur
and Thiruvananthapuram districts. There are recent reports that Den-2 and Den-3
viruses have been found both in mosquitoes and human blood. The statistics
provided by the Kerala Public Health Department shows that in the year 2011
there were 1304 reported cases of Dengue fever, which increased to 1396 in
2012. In addition to Dengue fever, epidemics such as Japan fever, Chikungunya and
Filariasis also have hit many parts of Kerala, especially the coastal areas,
and claimed many lives. On the basis of observations and experiments, experts
and health workers strongly assert that all these epidemics have to be
understood as the after-effects of climate change.[15]
In the year 2008, WHO
warned that Chikungunya has been widespread in Kerala since 2006 and observed
that it was the after effect of unprecedented climate change.
“Climate change is one
of the key factors of the Chikungunya outbreak in Kerala during 2006 and 2007.
Global warming is a major cause of surge in Chikungunya, dengue and malaria.
These vector borne diseases will intensify with climate change and more people
and new areas will fall prey to it”, according to Poonam Khetrapal Singh,
deputy regional director (Southeast Asia) of WHO.[16]
Intermix climatic
conditions of heat and dampness caused by increased atmospheric temperature and
untimely rainfall is favorable for the growth of a number of microbes;
moreover, such germs actively exist for a long time under such conditions.
Environmental pollution and waste water deposits result in excessive
procreation of germ-carrier mosquitoes. All these enabling conditions have made
the coastal areas of Kerala a fertile land for a number of epidemics.
How to combat this disaster?
Two things are
essential for facing such a challenge: first one is devising steps for reducing
the impact of such disasters and secondly, developing sufficient capacity to
cope with this calamity. The coast of Kerala and the communities residing there
are facing the consequences of climate change and global warming for no fault
of theirs. With whatever preventive measures that have been taken so far or
planned to be implemented, the unavoidable reality is that this disaster is at
their door steps. If timely initiatives to prevent the catastrophe are not
taken immediately, impacts of the disaster may be unbearable. It is a historic
truth that where modern technology and unscientific plans failed, traditional
knowledge systems and techniques succeeded. It is remarkable that such
initiatives are being experimented in the coastal environment and communities
of Kerala. Strengthening of such attempts and giving maximum propaganda and enhancing
awareness among the public about these initiatives are most desirable in the
present time. A few suggestions helpful in reducing the impacts of the disaster
are given below:
1. Plant
mangroves extensively especially in areas adjacent to estuaries and other
marshlands.
2. Plant
creepers such as Adampuvalli on the beach
3. Protect
natural coastal forests and sand-dunes
4. Develop
a bio-shield all over the coast of Kerala.
5. Strictly
implement the CRZ notification; ban all illegal constructions in areas near the
sea.
6. Fisherfolk
should be advised to construct their houses at safe places away from the coast.
Some suggestions also
are put forth for developing disaster preparedness to creatively cope with situations
caused by climate change:
1. As
a first step, identify the threat of irregular and uncertain fishery production.
2. Make
attempts to creatively intervene in market activities by forming social
management institutions in the changed scenario.
3. Take
proper precautions and preventive measures with the help of modern technology
while going for fishing.
4. Get
training in the production of value-added fish products. Co-ordinate marketing
and sale through co-operative societies and women organizations such as
Kudumbasree.
5. Start
resource/information centers and set up effective communication networks using
community radio, T.V., etc. to give prior information regarding unexpected
disasters.
6. Start
initiatives both in family and at Panchayath level to procure food, drinking
water, etc. for disaster-affected times.
7. Acquire
technological knowledge in methods of processing/disposing of waste at the
source itself; strongly oppose and prevent waste disposal in the sea.
8. Reduce
fuel consumption to the minimum level; use more of non-conventional energy like
solar and bio-gas.
Governments need to be
pressurized to show political will to effectively implement these suggestions in
order to address the unavoidable disaster due to global warming and climate
change. Attempts for disaster preparedness are to be started from school level
itself. It is high time that proper actions need to be initiated by society as
a whole to combat such unavoidable calamities keeping apart all blind
political, caste or religious rivalries.
[1]
Oamjie John is a researcher and development consultant based in Calicut. He can
be reached at oamjie@gmail.com and
+91-8089399915
[2] Dr. George Varghese, Kalavasthayum
Rashtreeyavum (Climate and Politics), Mathrubhumi Books,
Kozhikode, August, 2011
[3] Amrtha K,
Bharath Jairaj, Rachel Pearlin, Reports on Post Tsunami Environment
Initiative (PTEI) of the UNDP by Citizen
consumer and civic Action Group (CAG), Chennai and Malabar Coastal Institute
for Training, Research and Action (MCiTRA), Kozhikode, Kerala, March, 2008
[4] Kala
Seetharam Sridhar, Carbon Emissions, Climate Change, and Impacts in India’s
Cities, India Infrastructure Report 2010
[5] International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) (Woodruff et
al.,2005) (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cdc/data.coads.1deg.html), (2) NOAA SST data (Reynolds et al., 2002) and (3)
Kaplan SST data (Kaplan et al., 1998), both provided by the NOAA/OAR/ERSL PSD,
Boulder, Colorado, USA from their website http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/in
(Reynolds et al., 2002).
[6]
Prasanna Kumar .S, Raj P. Roshin, Jayu Narvekar, P.K. Dinesh Kumar and E.
Vivekanandan, Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional
climate shift, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, India,
Regional Center of NIO, Kochi, India, Central Marine Fisheries
Research Institute, Kochi, India, Marine Environmental Research: 68(5); 2009
[7]
http://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/India
Second National Communication to UNFCCC.pdf
[8] Dr. George Varghese, Kalavasthayum
Rashtreeyavum (Climate and Politics), Mathrubhumi Books,
Kozhikode, August, 2011
[9]
Thrivikramji, K.P., Climate Change Catastrophe: Insulating Kerala,
CED, KEC, Thrissur, April, 2008.
[10] Purushan K.S, Panangad Fisheries
College, Report of Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Kochi,
2008
[11] Ramesh R. P, Purvaja R, Senthil
Vel A, Report of National Centre for Sustainable Coastal Management (NCSCM)
[12]
Courtesy –Kerala Forest Department
[13] Vivekanandan
E, Jayasankar J, Winter School on Impact of Climate Change, Central Marine
Fisheries Research Institute, Kochi, 2008
[14] Vivekanandan
E, CMFRI Newsletter 112: Oct-Dec 2006; http://203.200.148.2/cdhome/Newsletter/Number_112_2006
[15] Prepared by IDSP, SSU under
Kerala Public Health Department http://dhs.kerala.gov.in/docs/pdf/cdaug.pdf
[16]
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/health/chikungunya-in-kerala-due-to-climate-change-who_10035395.html
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